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The Trending Church

What’s Next For The Church?

Church is not what it once was. I have been in church my entire life. As I reflect back at how the church has changed over the years, it stands to reason that church will not be the same in 10 years as it is now. The church is evolving. Whether for good or bad is up to individual interpretation. I would say that there is a little of both in our evolution. But there is no doubt that the church has changed. Even in the last decade. [tweetthis] The church is #evolving. How has #church changed in the last decade? #churchtrends[/tweetthis]

As I was looking over some articles recently that were discussing some of the current trends in Christianity and the church, I started thinking: What were the trends a decade ago? What was happening then that led to where we are today? Have any of the predictions about the state of the future church come true? I dug a little deeper and was able to find some interesting data regarding the church in 2005 – 2006. Here are some of the statistics and trends related to Christianity and the church:

1. Christianity remains the world’s most popular religion, with about 34% of people worldwide identifying themselves as Christian. About 1% of Christians go to a mega-church each week (attendance >1,000).
2. Although the importance of religion has been declining in other countries, it remains strong in the US. At this time, the US has the highest level of church attendance than any other country.
3. Confidence in religious institutions has hit an all-time low, with only 26% of survey respondents saying that they had a “great deal of confidence” in religious institutions.
4. 61% of people in their 20’s had previously been churched, but were now considered to be “spiritually disengaged”. 70% will leave the faith in college and only 35% will return.
5. Churches are rapidly incorporating new technology into their culture. Large-screen projection is used by nearly 38% of churches and 57% now have websites.
6. 47% of churches have attendance fewer than 100.

Using this information, some predictions were made about the future of Christianity and the church:

1. A growing frustration with churches among younger adults will lead to smaller groups of meetings among Christians, outside of the church. House churches, office Bible studies, and meetings in public places will increase as believers seek to satisfy their hunger for God that isn’t being met in the local church.
2. A re-energized movement of conservative Christianity would arise in the US. This would be seen as a great revival by some. Regardless, the conservative Christian movement would be more vocal and visible in the future.
3. There would be increased conflict over the rights of homosexuals in the US. Canada had just legalized same-sex marriage in 2005. This was viewed by many to be a precursor of the same battle in the US.
4. Greater diversity in local churches. Fewer segregated congregations. There was already growing diversity in churches. The prediction was that this would become the norm in many churches by 2015.
5. Those who are on the fringes of church attendance will drop out completely.

By and large, those predictions of the future state of the church have come true. A decade ago, about 1% of churches were considered mega-churches. Today, that percentage hasn’t changed much. However, the number of people who attend a mega-church has changed. About 10% of church attendees each week attend a mega church. The prediction in 2005 was that people would begin attending smaller churches. In fact, more people have begun attending larger churches. But the recent explosion in “house churches” and the trend among mega-churches to become multi-site churches has kept that prediction alive.

There has been a rise in the visibility of conservative Christianity in the last few years. Much of that rise is due to the increased conflict over same-sex marriage that was also predicted. As Christianity has encountered perceived opposition to its message, conservatism has risen from the ranks of Christendom to become quite vocal and visible in the last several years.  I would not categorize this rise as the beginnings of a revival, however. In fact, the perception among many Christians is that this rise in conservatism has actually damaged the cause of Christianity. We are viewed not as the conscience of America, but as those who are out of touch with our culture and values. Although the message that conservative Christians have presented has been correct, the method of communicating that message has often been delivered in a way that is devoid of the love that Christ taught us to show. I’m not suggesting that we become more “tolerant” of sin. Sin is sin. But I believe that we too often address the symptoms of sin and not the sin itself. [tweetthis] We too often address the symptoms of sin and not sin itself. ~Tom Rawlings #quote[/tweetthis]

The diversity of individual local churches has grown quite a bit in the last decade. However, we still have a long way to go. Most churches are not culturally diverse. As the world around us becomes more and more diverse, the church does not keep up with the diversity found in our workplaces, our cities, and towns, or even our local stores and shops. I think we need to recognize that not everyone wants diversity in the church. There are some congregations that are not culturally diverse on purpose. They enjoy the specific culture that their church represents and those who also enjoy it will attend. On the whole, however, churches want more cultural diversity. A recent study by LifeWay found that 85% of pastors thought that the church should be racially diverse, but only 13% actually are. Increased diversity in the church appears to be an ongoing trend that is still on the radar in 2016.

The last prediction 10 years ago was that those on the fringes would drop out of church completely. This is one prediction that, sadly, has come true. But not in the way that those who made it thought it would. While some have completely stopped attending church, many have just opted to attend less frequently. Rather than attend each week, many are now attending once or twice a month. This pattern of attendance has become the new norm for many people today. If you consider that in a congregation of 100 people, all of them attend each week, the average attendance is – drum roll please – 100. Now, if just 25 of those people decide to miss just one week out of the month, the average attendance becomes 94. If half of them miss one service each month, the average attendance drops to 87! That’s using a fairly conservative attendance projection. If half of the congregation attends only 2 services each month, the average attendance drops by 25%. Remember, no one has left the church. They are still members, they just don’t attend as often. This is obviously more visible in a smaller congregation, but it works for congregations of all sizes. This is arguably the best reason for declining church attendance in America. People are not attending as frequently as they used to.

Next week, we’ll take a look at diversity in the church. How do we build diversity in our churches? Check back next time to find out. Don’t forget to follow me @RealTomRawlings on Twitter for more church trends, growth and leadership ideas.